You might think we are dusting off our crystal ball… looking at predictions for the Brisbane property market out to 2032. That’s 10 years away!! But don’t panic, there is evidence-based science behind it.

With the announcement of the 2032 Brisbane Olympics, the whole state of Queensland launched into a tizz. Infrastructure plans that had long been archived are being resurrected and the dust blown off them. Think of the upgrade of the ‘Gabba and the surrounding precinct as an example.

Also, infrastructure currently under construction is being fast tracked to get it completed so as to make space for new projects that are needed. Cross River Rail is a great example of this. It’s a flurry of activity that is undoubtedly going to last right up to the games.

So, we all know infrastructure drives growth in property prices. What impact is all this hype and activity expected to have on Brisbane’s property prices?

Up, up and away

In one word, the trend is expected to be growth. Brisbane’s current median house price of $678,000 is expected to more than double before the Brisbane Olympics. By 2032, the median house price in Brisbane is expected to be $1.5 million and $1.7 million by 2033!

What’s driving this growth?

Infrastructure drives growth in an economy, and this is a textbook example. The main driver of this amazing growth in Brisbane is the huge amount of money that is being poured into capital works in preparation for the Olympics.

History has given us a sneak preview of the potential for house price growth following an Olympics. This was the Sydney Olympics in 2000. The median house prices in suburbs around the athlete’s village, for example, increased by just over 13% in the year after the Olympics. In wider Sydney, median house price growth was not just a one year wonder following the Olympics either. House prices grew by 38% two years after the Olympics and 66% three years after.

We have an example of similar property price patterns following a major event in Brisbane also. After the World Expo in 1988, South Bank and its neighbouring suburbs grew by 19%. The G20 in 2014 also drove growth of over 10% in the same area.

Another driver of house price grown prior to the Brisbane Olympics is population growth. Queensland’s South East currently has a population in the vicinity of 3.7 million. Forecasts indicate that this will be north of 5 million by mid next decade. Interstate migration is the main reason for this growth. In the three months to December 2020 almost 5 000 people moved to Brisbane, mainly from southern states.

Expectations 

So, what should we expect? The experts say solid Brisbane house price growth until 2028. That doesn’t sound so extraordinary.

It’s the following years leading up to the Brisbane Olympics and up to three years after that are set to be really crazy. These are the years that will deliver the main growth to meet the expected house prices for Brisbane.

The recommendation? Hold on for a wild ride, Brisbane!